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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."